• China is rebalancing its diplomacy, integrating soft and hard power in response to trade tensions with the US and a changing global power balance.
• Beijing's strategic outlook is influenced by the perception of a shift in power dynamics, leading to a more assertive stance and military buildup.
• Internal cohesion and the need for strategic self-reflection are critical for China to navigate international relations and avoid escalation of conflicts.

China is currently undergoing a significant shift in its diplomatic strategy, largely influenced by the ongoing trade war with the United States and a perceived change in the global power balance. Historically, China's diplomacy has played a crucial role in safeguarding its interests and asserting its bottom lines. However, analysts suggest that China is unlikely to rely on such a 'philosophy of struggle' indefinitely. The evolving approach involves integrating both hard and soft power, allowing for flexibility and adaptability while addressing internal needs and the risk of escalating international tensions. This rebalancing aims to secure development opportunities, maintain strategic agility, and reshape the pressure environment.

• What: China is reevaluating its diplomatic strategy, integrating both hard and soft power to navigate trade tensions, military buildup, and internal dynamics.
• Who: Key actors include China, the United States, President Trump, President Xi Jinping, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan).
• When: The shift in diplomatic strategy is occurring in 2025, influenced by events since 2021 and future risks over the next four years.
• Where: The events are centered around China, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Taiwan.

The analysis of China's diplomatic rebalancing reveals a complex interplay of factors shaping Beijing's foreign policy. The trade tensions with the U.S. serve as a catalyst for reevaluating its diplomatic strategies, while the perception of a shifting global power balance influences Beijing's assertiveness. The emphasis on integrating both hard and soft power suggests a more nuanced approach aimed at securing development opportunities and reshaping the international landscape. However, internal cohesion and the risk of military escalation remain critical concerns. The 'Elephant Strategy' of being a 'Gentle Giant' highlights China's intention to project an image of strength while maintaining a balanced and respectful attitude in international relations. The risk of military escalation remains, particularly concerning Taiwan, making strategic self-reflection crucial for China to navigate international relations responsibly.

Beijing has shown a strong capacity for retaliation and a tactical openness to negotiation, but not a willingness to kowtow.

the United States could no longer “speak with China from a position of strength.

China's diplomatic rebalancing represents a strategic adaptation to the evolving global landscape and trade tensions with the U.S. The shift towards integrating soft and hard power aims to secure development opportunities, maintain strategic flexibility, and reshape the pressure environment. However, internal cohesion and the potential for military escalation remain critical concerns. By adopting a balanced and respectful approach, China seeks to project an image of strength while engaging with the international community. The future success of this rebalancing will depend on China's ability to navigate these complex dynamics and avoid escalating conflicts.